"Five wins in a row" can be misleading. Form is only useful when you understand how a team is winning — and expected goals (xG) is the best tool for that.
Expected goals estimates the probability that a shot becomes a goal, based on location, angle, defenders and shot type. Summed over a match, it tells you how many goals a team "should" have scored. Over time, xG is a better predictor of future results than raw goals.
A team that won 1-0 with 0.4 xG and conceded 2.1 xG was lucky. A team that lost 1-2 with 2.0 xG created real chances and may be undervalued next time. Markets often overreact to results, which is where value appears.
Form and xG describe the past; team news describes the future. A missing goalkeeper or centre-back can change the goals expectation more than a striker's absence.
Every match page shows xG, form and model probabilities side by side, so you can see whether the market price matches the underlying numbers.
Read more in the learning centre or see today's predictions.